2021年电动汽车销量激增

Electric vehicle sales have surged, with growth in all three top auto markets: China, the US, and Europe

电动汽车销量激增,三大汽车市场均出现增长:中国、美国和欧洲

Electric vehicle (EV) sales have surged, with growth in all three top auto markets: China, the US, and Europe. Sales increased by 160% in the first half of 2021 from a year earlier, to 2.6 million units, representing 26% of new sales in the global automotive market.

电动汽车(EV)销量激增,三大主要汽车市场均出现增长:中国、美国和欧洲。2021 年上半年销量同比增长 160%,达到 260 万辆,占全球汽车市场新销量的 26%。

China remained the world’s top EV market, with 1.1 million vehicles sold in the first half, accounting for 12% of sales. In the US, EVs have been less popular. Only 250,000 units were sold, accounting for 3% of sales.

中国仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场,上半年销量为110万辆,占销量的12%。在美国,电动汽车不太受欢迎。仅售出 250,000 台,占销售额的 3%。

Analysis from IDTechEx has forecast that sales of electric vehicles are on track to surpass five million units this year – counting only passenger cars. “If they do, it will mean an astonishing growth rate of ~86% CAGR since 2011,” the report reads.

IDTechEx 的分析预测,今年电动汽车的销量有望超过 500 万辆 —— 仅计算乘用车。 报告写道:“如果他们这样做,这将意味着自 2011 年以来复合年增长率达到惊人的约 86%。”

In this regard, the EV market is demonstrating its robust nature as, despite the disruption caused by Covid-19, the market was able to grow. Political inducements have supported this. For instance, in the US, President Joe Biden set out a $174m commitment to support electric vehicle uptake, from charging infrastructure to topping up the federal tax credit, and his proposed new target of reaching 50% electrification by 2030.

在这方面,电动汽车市场正在展示其强大的性质,因为尽管受到 Covid-19 的干扰,但该市场仍能保持增长。政策上也体现了对电动汽车市场的支持。例如,在美国,拜登总统承诺 1.74 亿美元支持电动汽车的普及,从充电基础设施到联邦税收抵免,以及他提出的到 2030 年实现 50% 电气化的新目标。

Market penetration, however, has been mostly confined to the China, North American, and European markets, with Japan, Asia Pacific, and the rest of the world significantly lagging in sales of EV.

然而,市场渗透主要局限于中国、北美和欧洲市场,日本、亚太地区和世界其他地区的电动汽车销量明显滞后。

Last year, Japanese cars accounted for less than 5% of battery-electric vehicles sold worldwide, according to EV-volumes.com. This is due to widespread scepticism of electric cars’ potential profitability and environmental superiority compared to hybrid vehicles. This reluctance could prove to be a poison chalice and lead the country’s automotive sector to suffer the same fate as the country’s consumer electronics firms, which have largely faded into irrelevance because of their failure to stay ahead of market trends.

根据 EV-volumes.com 的数据,去年日本汽车占全球电动汽车销量的不到 5%。这是由于人们普遍怀疑电动汽车与混合动力汽车相比的潜在盈利能力和环境优势。这种不情愿可能被证明是毒酒杯,并导致该国汽车行业遭受与该国消费电子公司相同的命运,这些公司由于未能保持领先于市场趋势而在很大程度上变得无关紧要。

There must be a more concerted effort in these markets to install the requisite infrastructure to allow for greater EV use.

这些市场必须更加一致地努力安装必要的基础设施,以允许更多的电动汽车使用。

锂价上涨(Lithium prices jump)

Another impact of this uptake has been a jump in lithium prices; spot prices for lithium carbonate in China have climbed 170% so far this year, to RMB142,000 (\$22,000) a tonne, their highest since April 2018. Prices of spodumene, a source of lithium mainly mined in Australia, have climbed 144% this year, to ​\$990 a tonne.

电动汽车销量激增的另一个影响是锂价格的上涨。今年迄今为止,中国碳酸锂现货价格已上涨 170%,至每吨 142,000 元人民币(22,000 美元),为 2018 年 4 月以来的最高水平。同样,锂辉石(主要在澳大利亚开采的锂来源)的价格今年上涨了 144%,至每吨 990 美元。

Demand for lithium is expected to jump 26.1%, or about 100,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, to a total of 450,000 tonnes, flipping the market into a deficit of 10,000 tonnes, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

根据 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的数据,对锂的需求预计将增长 26.1%(即约 100,000 吨碳酸锂当量),达到 450,000 吨,使市场陷入 10,000 吨的缺口。

Lithium miner Albemarle projects global EV production to grow tenfold by 2030 and demand for lithium to grow at a compound annual rate of 30% through 2025. Its projections and revenue outlook even encouraged several analysts to bump up their price targets on the lithium stock on Monday. For example, UBS and BMO Capital Markets upped their targets to \$290 a share each; Oppenheimer posted a price target of ​\$296 per share; and Deutsche Bank sees Albemarle stock hitting ​\$270 per share.

锂矿商 Albemarle 预计,到 2030 年,全球电动汽车产量将增长十倍,到 2025 年,锂需求将以 30% 的复合年增长率增长。其预测和收入前景甚至鼓励几位分析师在周一提高了锂股票的价格目标。例如,瑞银和 BMO Capital Markets 将目标上调至每股 290 美元;奥本海默(Oppenheimer)公布了每股 296 美元的目标价;德意志银行认为 Albemarle 的股价将达到每股 270 美元。


原文链接:Electric vehicle sales surge in 2021

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