2022 年五大技术趋势
In 2022 the covid-19 pandemic will continue to impact our lives in many ways. This means that we will continue to see an accelerated rate of digitization and virtualization of business and society. However, as we move into a new year, the need for sustainability, ever-increasing data volumes, and increasing compute and network speeds will begin to regain their status as the most important drivers of digital transformation.
2022 年，COVID-19 大流行将继续以多种方式影响我们的生活。这意味着我们将继续看到商业和社会的数字化和虚拟化速度加快。然而，随着我们进入新的一年，对可持续性、不断增加的数据量，以及不断提高的计算和网络速度的需求，将开始重新成为数字化转型最重要的驱动力。
For many individuals and organizations, the most important lesson of the last two years or so has been that truly transformative change isn’t as difficult to implement as might have once been thought, if the motivation is there! As a society, we will undoubtedly continue to harness this newfound openness to flexibility, agility, and innovative thinking, as the focus shifts from merely attempting to survive in a changing world to thriving in it.
对于许多个人和组织而言，过去两年最重要的教训是 —— 如果有足够的动力，真正的变革性技术并不像人们想象的那么难实施！作为一个社会，我们无疑将继续利用这种新发现的对灵活性、敏捷性和创新思维的开放性，重点将从仅仅试图在不断变化的世界中生存转变为在其中蓬勃发展。
With that in mind, here are my predictions for the specific trends that are likely to have the biggest impact in 2022. You won’t find musings on quantum computing, neural interfaces, or nanotechnology – while they are certainly on the cards, their impact will be felt further down the line. Instead, the most important trends in 2022 are likely to focus around the convergence of technology trends, as tools emerge that let us combine them in new and amazing ways.
考虑到这一点，以下是我们对可能在 2022 年产生最大影响的具体趋势的预测。不过这里并不会提及量子计算、神经接口或纳米技术，虽然它们肯定是有可能产生重大影响的，但它们的影响会在更远的地方被感受到。相反，2022 年最重要的趋势可能集中在技术趋势的融合上，因为工具的出现让我们能够以新的和惊人的方式将它们结合起来。
人工智能无处不在
Artificial Intelligence everywhere
"Smart" really just used to mean connected – smartphones, smart TVs, and the plethora of other smart devices were really just the same old toys but connected to the internet. Today, “smart” increasingly means powered by artificial intelligence (AI) – generally machine learning algorithms – and capable of helping us in increasingly innovative ways. Smart cars use facial recognition algorithms to detect whether we are paying attention to the road and alert us if we're getting tired. Smartphones use AI algorithms to do everything from maintain call quality to help us take better pictures, and of course, they are packed with apps that use AI to help us do just about anything. Even smart toilets are on their way – capable of helping to diagnose gastrointestinal issues by using computer vision to analyze stool samples!
“智能”实际上只是用来表示具有联网功能 —— 智能手机、智能电视和大量其他智能设备，实际上只是相同的旧玩具，只不过连接到互联网而已。如今，“智能”越来越意味着由人工智能 (AI)（通常是机器学习算法）提供支持，并且能够以越来越创新的方式帮助我们。智能汽车使用面部识别算法来检测我们是否在关注道路，并在我们疲倦时提醒我们。智能手机使用 AI 算法来做所有事情，从保持通话质量到帮助我们拍出更好的照片，当然，还包含使用 AI 来帮助我们做任何事情的应用程序。甚至还出现 了智能马桶 —— 能够通过使用计算机视觉分析粪便样本来帮助诊断胃肠道问题！
AI has permeated the tools we use to carry out everyday work – from the ubiquitous voice assistants to language translation and tools that allow us to extract structured data from pictures, whiteboard scribblings, and hand-written notes. It also powers much of the robotic process automation that has enabled workloads to be lightened in admin, logistics, accounting, and HR departments. Whatever your industry or job function, you’re likely to find there’s an AI-powered solution designed to make your life easier.
人工智能已经渗透到我们用于开展日常工作的工具中，从无处不在的语音助手到语言翻译，以及让我们能够从图片、白板涂鸦和手写笔记中提取结构化数据的工具。它还支持大部分机器人流程自动化，从而减轻了管理、物流、会计和人力资源部门的工作量。无论你的行业或工作职能是什么，你都可能会发现有一个人工智能驱动的解决方案，旨在让你的生活更轻松。
This broad trend encompasses AI, the internet of things (IoT), and newly emerging super-fast networks like 5G, all of which are coming together to augment us with capabilities we didn’t have just a few years ago. This highlights the fact that on a longer timescale than the one we are specifically looking at here, the most impactful trend of all will be convergence. Growing data volumes, faster network and processor speeds, and the “democratization” of data (more on this below) are coming together and will affect society in a way that is much more than the sum of their parts.
这一广泛的趋势包括人工智能、物联网（IoT）和新兴的超高速网络（如 5G），所有这些都汇集在一起，增强了我们几年前还没有的功能。这突 出了一个事实，即从更长远的时间尺度来看，最具影响力的趋势将是趋同。不断增长的数据量、更快的网络和处理器速度以及数据的“民主化”（更多内容见下文）正在结合在一起，并将以远远超过其各部分总和的方式影响社会。
一切即服务和无代码革命
Everything-as-a- service and the no-code revolution
Another increasingly powerful driver will be the ongoing democratization of data and technology. In recent years an entire industry has emerged which aims to put the skills and tools necessary for tech-led innovation in the hands of as large a proportion of society as possible, regardless of their expertise or experience. Cloud solutions for storage, network and processing mean costs, and risks of setting up expensive infrastructure in order to try out new ideas are heavily mitigated. Hybrid solutions – for when public cloud services aren’t entirely appropriate, for example when dealing with very private or valuable data – have matured to the point where a “best of both worlds” solution is often viable.
另一个日益强大的驱动力将是数据和技术的持续民主化。近年来，出现了一个完整的行业，旨在将技术主导的创新所需的技能和工具交到尽可能多的社会成员手中，而不管他们的专业知识或经验如何。用于存储、网络和处理的云解决方案意味着建立昂贵的基础设施以尝试新想法的成本和风险大大降低。当公共云服务不完全合适时，例如在处理非常私密或有价值的数据时，可以采用已经成熟到“两全其美”的混合云解决方案。
Innovation has been curtailed in some areas by the skills crisis, which sounds like a problem but has been a driver behind the explosion of self-service and “do-it-yourself” solutions. Not every company needs to hire an army of computer geniuses to build their own "digital brain" when they can simply lease one for the work they need doing. Ready-built AI solutions exist for everything from marketing to HR, project management, and planning and design of production processes. In 2022 we will continue to see companies deploying AI and IoT infrastructure without owning a single server or proprietary piece of cognitive code.
技能危机在某些领域限制了创新，这听起来像是一个问题，但却是自助服务和“自己动手”解决方案爆炸式增长的驱动力。 并不是每家公司都需要聘请一群计算机天才来建立自己的“数字大脑”，因为他们可以简单地租用一个计算机来完成他们需要做的工作。现成的 AI 解决方案适用于从营销到人力资源、项目管理以及生产流程规划和设计的方 方面面。2022 年，我们将继续看到公司在不拥有单个服务器或专有认知代码的情况下部署人工智能和物联网基础设施。
No-code interfaces will become more popular as a lack of programming knowledge, or a detailed understanding of statistics and data structures, will cease to become a barrier to bringing a world-changing idea into reality. OpenAI – a research group founded by Elon Musk and funded by, among others, Microsoft, recently unveiled Codex, a programming model that can generate code from natural, spoken human language. As technology like this matures – which we will start to see in 2022 – and converges with the possibilities offered by cloud infrastructure, our innovation and imagination will less frequently be held back by a lack of either resources or technical skills.
由于缺乏编程知识或对统计和数据结构的详细理解，无代码接口将变得更加流行，将不再成为将改变世界的想法变为现实的障碍。OpenAI 是一个由埃隆·马斯克创立并由微软等公司资助的研究小组，它最近推出了 Codex，一种可以从自然语言生成代码的编程模型。随着此类技术的成熟，我们将在 2022 年开始看到，无代码技术与云基础设施进一步融合，使我们的创新和想象力不再经常因缺乏资源或技术技能而受到阻碍。
数字化、数据化和虚拟化
Digitization, datafication and virtualization
During 2020 and 2021, many of us experienced the virtualization of our offices and workplaces, as remote working arrangements were swiftly put in place. This was just a crisis-driven surge of a much longer-term trend. In 2022, we will become increasingly familiar with the concept of a “metaverse” – persistent digital worlds that exist in parallel with the physical world we live in. Inside these metaverses – such as the one proposed recently by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg – we will carry out many of the functions we’re used to doing in the real world, including working, playing, and socializing. As the rate of digitization increases, these metaverses will model and simulate the real world with growing accuracy, allowing us to have more immersive, convincing, and ultimately valuable experiences within the digital realm. While many of us have experienced somewhat immersive virtual realities through headsets, a range of new devices coming to the market will soon greatly improve the experience offering tactile feedback and even [smells](https://d.docs.live.net/8ded56736750c022/Documents/Work/Bernard Marr/Drafts/smells). Ericsson, which provided VR headsets to employees working from home during the pandemic, and is developing what it calls an “internet of senses," has predicted that by 2030 virtual experiences will be available that will be indistinguishable from reality. That might be looking a little further ahead than we are interested in for this article. But, along with a new Matrix movie, 2022 will undoubtedly take us a step closer to entering the matrix for ourselves.
在 2020 年和 2021 年期间，随着远程办公的迅速 普及，我们中的许多人都经历了办公室和工作场所的虚拟化。这只是危机驱动的长期趋势激增。到 2022 年，我们将越来越熟悉“metaverse”（元宇宙）的概念 —— 与我们生活的物理世界平行存在的持久数字世界。例如 Facebook 创始人马克扎克伯格最近提出的，元宇宙将执行我们在现实世界中习惯做的许多功能，包括工作、玩耍和社交。随着数字化速度的提高，这些元宇宙将以越来越准确的方式对现实世界进行建模和模拟，使我们能够在数字领域拥有更加身临其境、令人信服和最终有价值的体验。虽然我们中的许多人已经通过头显体验了某种程度的身临其境的虚拟现实，但市场上的一系列新设备将很快大大改善体验，提供触觉反馈甚至[气味](https://d.docs.live.net/8ded56736750c022/Documents/Work/Bernard Marr/Drafts/smells)。爱立信在新冠大流行期间为在家工作的员工提供 VR 头戴设备，并正在开发所谓的“[感官互联网](https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/consumerlab/reports /10-hot-consumer-trends-2030)”预测，到 2030 年，虚拟体验将与现实无法区分。这可能比我们对本文感兴趣的更远一些。但是，随着一部新的矩阵电影，2022年无疑会让我们更接近自己进入矩阵。
透明、治理和问责制
Transparency, governance and accountability
For technology to work, we humans need to be able to trust it. We already (rightly) see strong pushbacks against many ways that technology is currently being used that are seen as obtrusive, dangerous, or irresponsible. AI, in particular, is sometimes portrayed as a "black box" – meaning we can't see inside it to understand how it works. This is often due to its complexity rather than any malevolent scheme to limit our understanding, however, the effect is the same. This means that incidents where AI is shown to be damaging – for example, when Facebook recently appeared to label images of black people as “primates” – are extremely alarming. This is particularly true in a society that is starting to look towards AI for decision-making that affects lives, such as hiring and firing.
为了让技术发挥作用，我们人类需要能够信任它。我们已经（正确地）看到了对当前使用技术的许多方式的强烈抵制，这些方式被视为突兀、危险或不负责任。特别是人工智能，有时被描绘成一个“黑匣子” —— 这意味着我们无法看到它的内部来理解它是如何工作的。虽然这通常是由于其复杂性而不是任何恶意计划来限制我们的理解，但效果是相同的。也出现了人工智能被证明具有破坏性的事件，例如 Facebook 似乎将黑人图像标记为“灵长类动物”，非常令人震惊。在一个开始将 AI 用于影响生活的决策的社会中尤其如此，例如 招聘和解雇（在劳动力决策中使用人工智能）。
The idea of transparent and explainable AI has been growing in popularity over recent years, as it has become clear that there are segments of society that distrust it – clearly with good reason! Governments, too, clearly understand that there is a need for a regulatory framework, as evidenced by the existence of the EU’s proposed Artificial Inte lligence Act. The proposed act prohibits authorities from using AI to create social scoring systems, as well as from using facial recognition tools in public places. There is also a list of potentially dangerous effects, including "exploiting vulnerabilities" and "causing physical or psychological harm," that AI solutions providers will have to demonstrate their systems will not cause, before they can be offered for sale. Some, however, claim that it doesn’t go far enough as, in its current state, it doesn’t contain any stipulation that people should be informed when they become the subjects of AI-driven decision-making processes. Google CEO Sundar Pichai has said that while he recognizes regulation of AI is necessary, “there is a balance to be had” to ensure innovation isn’t stifled. This balancing act is likely to become an increasingly prominent subject of discussion during 2022 as more people become aware of the potential positive and negative effects on society that AI and other technology trends will have.
近年来，透明和可解释的 AI 的想法越来越受欢迎，因为很明显，有些社会阶层不信任它 —— 这显然是有充分理由的！各国政府也清楚地明白需要一个监管框架，欧盟提议的 人工智能法案 的存在证明了这一点。拟议的法案禁止当局使用人工智能创建社交评分系统，以及在公共场所使用面部识别工具。还有一系列潜在的危险影响，包括“利用漏洞”和“造成身体或心理伤害”，人工智能解决方案提供商必须证明他们的系统不会造成这些危害，然后才能出售。同时，有些人声称它做得还不够，因为在目前的状态下，它没有包含任何规定，即人们在成为人工智能驱动的决策过程的主体时应该被告知。谷歌 CEO Sundar Pichai 曾表示，虽然他承认对人工智能的监管是必要的，但“需要保持平衡”以确保创新不会被扼杀。随着越来越多的人意识到人工智能对社会的潜在积极和消极影响，这种平衡行为可能会成为 2022 年越来越突出的讨论主题。
可持续能源解决方案
Sustainable energy solutions
During the pandemic, renewable energy was the only form of energy that saw usage increase. In the US, renewable energy use increased by 40% during the first ten weeks of lockdown. Worldwide, all non-renewable energy usage decreased as industries shut down and people stayed at home, leading to an overall reduction in emissions of 8%. This has led to an expectation that increasing investment will be put into generating energy from renewable resources in coming years.
在大流行期间，可再生能源是唯一一种使用量增加的能源形式。在美国，在封锁的前十周内，可再生能源的使用量增加了 40%。在全球范围内，由于工厂的关闭和人们待在家里，所有不可再生能源的使用量都减少了，从而使总排放量减少了 8%。这导致人们预计，未来几年将增加对可再生资源发电的投资。
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 40% more renewable energy was generated and used during 2020 compared to the previous year and forecasts that this growth with continue throughout 2022. Overall, the cost of generating renewable energy from various sources, including onshore and offshore wind, solar and tidal, fell by between seven and 16%. This will be a huge help for countries and businesses trying to hit emissions targets, such as becoming carbon neutral or even carbon negative. Additionally, exciting new emerging energy sources such as biofuels, liquid hydrogen, and even nuclear fusion are becoming more viable, even if it may be a little after 2022 when their full impact of some of them will be felt. However, breakthroughs in all of these areas are likely to make headlines. Helion Energy – a pioneer in the field of fusion energy, which replicates the process used to create energy in the sun – expects their latest prototype fusion generator to come online during 2022. Practical applications are also expected to emerge in the field of “green hydrogen” energy. Unlike the established processes for creating energy from hydrogen, which involve using large amounts of “dirty” fossil fuel energy to create electrolysis, separating hydrogen and oxygen without emitting carbon, this involves using renewable energy, dampening the overall environmental impact.
国际能源署（IEA）估计 2020 年产生和使用的可再生能源与上一年相比增加了 40%，并预测这种增长将持续到 2022 年。总体而言，从各种来源（包括陆上和海上风能、太阳能和潮汐能）产生可再生能源的成本下降了 7 到16%。这对于试图达到碳中和甚至碳负等排放目标的国家和企业来说将是一个巨大的帮助。此外，令人兴奋的新兴能源，例如生物燃料、液氢，甚至核聚变，都变得越来越可行，即使可能要在 2022 年之后才能感受到其中一些能源的全面影响。不过，所有这些领域的突破都可能成为头条新闻。聚变能源领域的先驱 Helion Energy 复制了在太阳中产生能量的过程，预计他们最新的聚变发生器原型将在 2022 年上线。“绿氢”能源领域也有望出现实际应用。与现有的从氢产生能源的过程不同，新方法不使用大量“肮脏”的化石燃料能源进行电解，而是在不排放碳的情况下分离氢和氧，从而减少对环境的影响。